Friday, January 22, 2016

“Capitalism revisited: Do special interests rule?”, The Colorado Springs Business Journal, January 22-28, 2016, p. 20.


Capitalism Revisited

It’s that time again for new year’s resolutions, presidential “state of the union” speeches, or simply taking stock of capitalism as we know it.

When we hear that the price of a barrel of oil is declining to below $30, should we panic, rejoice, or ignore this data point? Do you recall when it was over $100 and we didn’t know if to panic, rejoice, or ignore it? Is this simply the result of, as economic textbooks have taught us, supply and demand? Or, is something else going on here?

What are the political ramifications of the decline in oil prices? Adversaries, from Russia and Venezuela to Iran and Libya are bound to feel the pain because their domestic budgets depend on high oil prices; even so-called friendly nations, like Saudi-Arabia and Brazil feel the squeeze. Are they all our competitors now?  

At home, mixed-messages abound: the stock market tumbles because oil giants are suffering and their losses are reflected in their stock prices which make up the index. Job losses are mentioned everywhere, as if the nation’s latest December upsurge in employment wasn’t real or lasting.

But wouldn’t lower oil prices, as translated into lower gas prices at the pump, not translate into greater discretionary spending elsewhere? And wouldn’t this create a domestic economic boom?

If you have a nagging suspicion that the argument about the natural wisdom of supply and demand and prices isn’t consistently applied to the market, you are not alone.

Robert Reich, the former Secretary of Labor under President Clinton, attempts to help us understand what’s wrong with American capitalism in his latest Saving Capitalism: For the Many, Not the Few (2015).

If anyone suspects Reich to be on the left of the political spectrum, he begins his analysis with the assurance that unlike Karl Marx’s prediction, capitalism isn’t inherently a bad system that will bring its own collapse.

Reich’s focus is on the rules that set up the marketplace, the political system that establishes the laws that support capitalism as an economic system. For him, it’s not the “free market” vs. “the “government,” but rather how the free market is supported by government regulations that are supposed to ensure its fairness and trustworthiness.  

Democratic governments set the rules by which market mechanisms work efficiently and for all, or inefficiently and just for the few. In recalling the warnings of politicians and justices from the past century, it becomes clear that the issue for them wasn’t how to protect the free market, but how to protect democracy from the wealthy elite.

Among the ones he quotes, the most blatant was supreme court justice, Louis Brandeis, who said in 1941 that “We can have democracy or we can have great wealth in the hands of a few, but we cannot have both.”

Was his warning prescient?

As far as Reich is concerned, when about half of all the senators and representatives who leave office (regardless of party affiliation) join lobbying firms and then pressure their previous colleagues to pass legislation that protects or promotes the interests of few corporate giants, then, yes, we have a political and economic collusion. to fruition!

Likewise, the concentration of wealth in the hands of the few, as Reich reports, is quite extreme: “the six Walmart heirs together had more wealth (in 2014) than the bottom 42 percent of Americans combined (up from 30.5 percent in 2007).”

Reich calls this a “redistribution upward” or a “pre-distribution” because it’s about the rules of the game of capitalism and how “invisible” they remain from public scrutiny. These rules, from intellectual property rights and monopoly power to contractual relations between corporations and their workers to the laws of bankruptcy and the lack of regulatory enforcement, ensure that the game is rigged in favor of large corporations, Wall Street, and wealthy individuals.

The days of “stakeholder capitalism”—where what was good for General Motors was good for America—have become after the 1980s the days of “shareholder capitalism”—where CEOs make decisions that favor themselves and a few large shareholders.

Reich reminds us of “interest-group populism” that prevailed after WWII when people joined local groups and professional associations to represent their interests, and what resulted was “neither rule by majority nor by minority but by a ‘majority of minorities’.” This way of thinking was inspired by John Kenneth Galbraith who argued for a “countervailing power” to limit the power of the wealthy.

So, instead of listening to pundits that lament the loss of jobs in the oil and gas industry, let’s remember that we can become the largest oil exporting power in the world, and that we can create millions of jobs in alternative energy industries!

Raphael Sassower is professor and chair of philosophy at UCCS. He can be reached at rsassower@gmail.com See previous articles at sassower.blogspot.com

Sunday, January 17, 2016

"Parallel Universe: How Wall Street & Republicans Thrive On False Negative Hype," LeadStories.com, January 17, 2016


Parallel Universe

If you listened to the last GOP presidential debate in South Carolina or have watched with anxiety the tumbling of the stock market, with a downward spiral that comes close to the 10% official “correction” designation, you’d think that the US is on the verge of collapse. If you were young and ambitious or retired with a sufficient nest-egg, you’d be checking the Internet on where to immigrate. Who would want to live in a country that is unsafe, led by a president who “doesn’t care about America,” and an economy that is so bad that more illegal immigrants are leaving than entering our southern border (by as much as 140,000 from 2009-2014, according to Pew Research Center). The political climate in Washington, DC is so contaminated and corrupt that some leading members of congress (Steve Israel of the 3rd district of New York is the latest casualty) are simply not seeking re-election (which is a guarantee to incumbents at the rate of over 96%, according to Louis Jacobson in Politifact).

But this isn’t the America I live in. I recall the announcement by the Bureau for Labor Statistics that some 292,000 nonfarm jobs were added in December 2015, that the economy was growing fast enough for the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates by .25%, that lower oil and gas prices and the discontinuance of the prohibition of oil exports will make the US not only energy independent and a net exporter of oil and gas but one of the leading producers of oil and gas in the world, and that overall we still enjoy civil rights that are denied by many of our allies, like Saudi-Arabia (whose legal system is based on a very strict orthodox interpretation of Sharia law). Paying less than $2/gallon of gas will allow all of us to spend more of our money on other goods and services which in turn will boost the economy, since about 70% of our Gross Domestic Product comes from consumer spending. Lower oil prices will lead to greater spending, and greater spending to economic growth; this, at least, is what neoclassical economic theory teaches us. But maybe this theoretical rosy picture is too naïve, maybe in the real world things work differently, even without a conspiracy theory at work.

In the real world of brokerage houses on Wall Street a stable economy that is slowly but steadily growing is not volatile enough for daily trading spreads. A bit of bad news followed by good news and vice versa ensures enough volatility to guarantee great profits. You can check the financial reports of any of the major investment banks in the US and see right away that the largest contribution to their bottom line comes from trading, what some call arbitrage (which is simply buying low and selling high). The margins are miniscule, but the volume is so large—billions of dollars daily—that by the end of the year there are substantial amount of money being made from little movements in stock or commodity prices. And when a bunch of hedge funds collaborate to bring prices down or up, as they have been fined after legal discovery, then the trust we have in the fairness of markets and the supposed reflection of prices of efficient information about supply and demand (EMH) falls apart. And if these margins aren’t sufficient, inside-trading is always available, as hedge funds, such as SAC Capital and its CEO Steven A. Cohen, have admitted as much when paying $1.8 billion(!) in fines.

Add to this the technically-enhanced “high-frequency trading” which finds the buying and selling prices of stocks nano-seconds before these prices appear on the market itself, and therefore are able to “game” the buy and sell orders before anyone else has a chance to fill them, and you have, once again, inside-trading plain and simple: information gained before anyone else has a chance to compete with you is still unfair, no matter what technical trick or loophole you were able to find. So, is volatility the dream of any trader? Yes, it is. Is knowing a bit before anyone else what someone is willing to pay for a stock inside-trading? Yes, it is. Grand conspiracy? Maybe not; but definitely an advantage to elite hedge-funds and investment banks that can game the system in the name of “free markets”; the term “collusion with impunity” seems apt. And when caught, years later, as Goldman Sachs was in its involvement with mortgages and the collapse of the economy, then a fine of $5.1 billion(!) makes it all okay—it’s the price of doing business. And the six million Americans who lost their homes can be forgotten. For those who are interested in a simple, straight-forward explanation of the mortgage bubble and its ensuing Great Recession, go watch the recently released movie The Big Short.

It’s plain why Republican presidential contenders claim that the country, led by a Democrat, is doing poorly—they want to build an argument for changing the guard: Democrats are bad, we are good, ergo: your next president must not be a Democrat but a Republican. It’s also plain why they would portray such a negative picture of America’s national security and its economy, not giving any credit to the president for any policy decision that helped us get out of the (Republican-induced) Great Recession of 2008-2012 or spending more on the Department of Defense than the entire world put together (ABC News 2/24/14), a budget which, incidentally, is voted on by Congress which, incidentally, is controlled by the Republicans. So what about the media?

You’d think the media would be smarter than all of that, telling us if the king has no clothes or telling us the truth about our own country. But you’d be sorely disappointed. What happened to independent reporting, cool-headed analysis, and a long-range perspective on what’s going on in the economy? What about calming the population rather than scaring it half to death, especially when there is no reason for alarm? Last I checked, there is something called self-fulfilling prophecies, the kind of alarmist pronouncements that make people withdraw their money from their local banks, only to perpetrate a run on the bank that in fact leads to its collapse… Have we learned nothing from our own economic history? Don’t journalists and pundits realize that the more positive their pronouncements are—given positive economic data—the better the economy (of consumers) will function? It’s plain that the latest negative hype is just a hype, nothing more nothing less. And the quicker we get over it, the better, because the American economy is still very strong!

Raphael SassowerWall